“When you suggest June, July, August, (mass gatherings) are unlikely,” California governor Gavin Newsom said in a press conference yesterday, April 14th. The governor is trying to keep expectations reasonable for when concerts and mass gatherings can begin to happen.
Earlier this week a health expert warned that live shows and conferences likely won't start happening until Fall 2021, and Newsom pretty much backed those thoughts in this conference.
“The prospect of mass gatherings is negligible at best until we get to herd immunity and we get to a vaccine,” Newsom said. “So large-scale events that bring in hundreds, thousands, tens of thousands of strangers altogether across every conceivable difference, health and otherwise, is not in the cards based upon our current guidelines and current expectations.”
Experts estimate it would take about a year for herd immunity to take effect, where 90% of the population has gained immunity from the disease from already having it pass through their body. While the FDA is doing everything to fast track a vaccine, even if it's ready today – which it is not, it still requires months of trials and testing, and then production before it could be applied on a mass scale.
So, it seems even if some states to lift restrictions for live shows, California, the largest state in the nation, would not be one of them. But Newsom wanted to make clear that he is ultimately speculating on timelines.
“Things can change radically and we could of course have therapeutics at scale, the kind of community testing at scale, serology tests at scale and a capacity to get vaccines earlier than we anticipated that can change that dynamic, so I want to caution my own words in that context,” Newsom said.
